Category Archives: Market Data

Home Values Compared to the Peak of 2006-2007

by The KCM Crew

Home Values Compared to the Peak of 2006-2007

There is no doubt that the housing market has recovered from the meltdown that occurred just a few short years ago. However, in some states home values still have not returned to the prices we saw in 2006 and 2007.

Here is a breakdown showing where current prices are in each state as compared to peak prices.

Housing-Prices

HPI Price Since Peak

HPI-Price-Since-Peak

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2014 Housing Market Predictions

Crystal ball

Making predictions in what is still a somewhat volatile housing market can be tricky. That being said, we are going to give you what we believe will be the five biggest headlines for housing in 2014.

Home Sales Will Surge

Many housing pundits are calling for home sales to do slightly better in 2014 than they did in 2013. To the contrary, we strongly believe that home sales will skyrocket with increases of 10-15% in 2014.

Supply Will Struggle to Keep Up with Demand

With a dramatic increase in demand, it will be up to real estate professionals and builders to make sure there is the necessary inventory to satisfy this demand. This will be a challenge for much of the year.

Interest Rates Will Increase Significantly

Most experts are calling for an increase in mortgage interest rates in 2014. However, we believe the increase will be more dramatic than is being projected. We believe rates will be closer to 6% than 5% by year’s end.

Consumers Will Demand More from Real Estate Professionals

Home search will become a given to the real estate consumer in 2014. In order to differentiate themselves from other agents, real estate professionals will need to bring strong, meaningful content to the table in all their offerings

Go Mobile or Go Home

Any content strategy the industry contemplates must have a mobile component. All information will be accessed 24/7 in every conceivable environment. The professionals who understand and act on this will dominate 2014.

SOURCE: KCM NEWS

Who says now is a great time to buy a house?

13,780 homes sold yesterday

To all those who have declared the real estate market dead, we want you to know that over 13,780 houses sold yesterday, 13,780 will sell today and 13,780 will sell tomorrow.

 

That is the average number of homes that sell each and every day in this country according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report. NAR reported that sales had increased 7.7% over the month before and 18.6% over the year before. According to the report, annualized sales now stand at 5.03 million. Divide that number by 365 (days in a year) and we can see that, on average, well over 13,000 homes sell every day.

We realize that these numbers are below the record for homes sold in 2006. We also know that we may never see those numbers again (and that is probably a good thing). But to say that the current real estate market is dead or that houses are not selling is totally inaccurate. We have over 13,000 pieces of evidence to prove that.

What about those foreclosures still on the books…

Windows of Opportunity Beginning to Close for Sellers

We have suggested that sellers who need to sell within the next 18 months had a ‘window of opportunity’ to sell at higher prices. They needed to put their houses up for sale immediately before a flood of distressed properties were introduced to the market. This window is beginning to close. The paperwork challenges faced by banks that caused a delay in the foreclosure process over the last ten months are starting to clear. It seems that these houses are now coming to the market.

RealtyTrac reported in their September Foreclosure Report:

“Default notices were filed for the first time on a  total of 78,880 U.S. properties in August, a nine-month high and a 33 percent  increase from July — the biggest month-over-month increase since August 2007.”

James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac explained:

“The big increase in new foreclosure actions may be a signal that lenders are starting to push through some of the foreclosures delayed by robo-signing and other documentation problems. It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process.”

Diana Olick, of CNBC’s Realty Check quoted a spokesperson for Bank of America:

“ Strong gains like that from July to August demonstrate our progress – primarily in judicial states — clearing more volume to advance to foreclosure once we pass the numerous quality controls we have in place and exhaust all options with homeowners.”

The impact will be felt from coast to coast. New Jersey Superior Court Judge Mary Jacobson recently cleared the way for the top banks to resume foreclosures in the state. The impact this will have on the number of distressed properties can be clearly seen in these statistics reported by Housing Wire:

“In October, New Jersey had the 24th highest foreclosure rate in the country, with servicers filing roughly 5,200 foreclosures that month, according to RealtyTrac. By July, the Garden State’s foreclosure rate dropped to 42nd with just 1,112 filings last month.”

ForeclosureRadar, which handles research in California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Nevada, last week reported:

“Foreclosure starts rose in every state.”

Bottom Line

If you currently are selling your home, price it to compel a buyer to purchase it now. Waiting will cause you to compete with an increased number of distressed properties which sell at dramatically discounted prices.

 

SOURCE: KCM Blog

Home Valuation – An Expert Appraiser’s View

Valuing real estate has never been an easy task for an appraiser. In the past it was difficult keeping up with steadily increasing values. Today, we must stay on top of every sale, dissecting it to determine if it is arms length, weeding through REO, Short Sales and other various distressed properties. Sales are not easy to come by these days and so many are tainted it is often impossible to arrive at a truly meaningful and supportable value. If that is not enough, federal appraisal guidelines have changed so much, I often feel I have both hands tied behind my back.

The good news is that we are seeing some stabilization in the Metro Atlanta real estate market. The inventory of homes for sale has dropped and the number of foreclosed properties has leveled off a bit. New home construction is happening again. This is due to the huge drop in existing inventory of new homes and the unprecedented decline in the value of vacant land and developed lots.  This drop is just enough to allow a builder to be profitable when building a new home.

The new homes we are seeing going up are somewhat more modest than those of recent past. Builders are reluctant to build enormous houses on speculation and buyers have had a dose of reality and are looking for smaller, less flashy homes. I feel this sector of the market, new home construction, will grow the most over the next 12 months. This should increase jobs which will bolster the economy as well as the real estate market.

Appraisal regulations are easing a bit as we transition from HVCC rules to the Dodd Frank Act. Appraisers will be more fairly treated and receive “reasonable compensation”. One of the problems for the appraisal business was the rise of the Appraisal Management Companies (AMC’s) which sought the appraiser who would do the job the fastest and the cheapest. This was most often not in the best interest of the real estate market. Appraisers were rushing through assignments and justifying it based on the extremely low fees they were paid. This lead to sloppy work and inaccurate appraisals. With the help of this recent legislation, appraisers are now given the time to accurately analyze the market and complete a competent appraisal. The problem still remains however, that too many appraisal management companies do not have sophisticated assigning software to get the job to the appraiser with the most “geographical competence”.

The best way to protect yourself when listing your home is to consult with a real estate professional and hire the most competent appraiser in the area to perform a pre-listing or what we call a consultation appraisal. Our firm offers a product where we will come to the house and perform a thorough appraisal inspection. We will complete our appraisal report and review it with you and your agent. This will allow you and your agent to choose the most appropriate list price for your home. Our service does not end there. We are your consultant all the way through closing. Most importantly, we will be there to defend our appraisal and help you in the event that the bank appraisal comes in low. We will write the letter of rebuttal to the lender – doing it in such as way as to outline all the deficiencies in the bank appraisal and offering concrete evidence and additional sales to support our value.

We have seen the number of low appraisals on good arm’s length purchases skyrocket over the past 12-18 months. This is due to multiple issues. First is the new regulations which sever contact between loan officer and appraiser – many appraisers now use this as a shield to allow themselves to be conservative. But why would they want to be conservative? The number of lawsuits by lenders of appraisers has risen at a staggering rate. Furthermore, underwriters are feeling the pressure of the mortgage meltdown and are scrutinizing every appraisal. It is much easier for me to come in low – less work and less grief from the underwriter. This infuriates me – appraisers should never have an effect on the market. Our job is not to DETERMINE market value but to INTERPRET market value. If there is a true arm’s length purchase agreement between a willing and knowledgeable buyer and a willing and knowledgeable seller – that is market value! That does not mean that we can always produce an appraisal which will justify it to the lender but the appraiser should make every attempt to let the market move on its own accord.  I spend the majority of my time working with agents who have not hired us to do the consultation on the front end and end up with a low appraisal on the back end. Over nine times out of ten the appraiser is wrong and the sales price is justified. The problem is that the “cat is out of the bag”. The underwriter has the appraisal and usually the appraiser is too stubborn or incompetent to reason with to correct the appraisal. We have a 99% success rate with our consultation appraisal service and less than a 50% success rate when I come in after the bank appraisal has been completed. Appraisers are not allowed to revise their appraisal reports – even if I get them to agree that they were wrong – unless the underwriter gives them permission. On top of all this, a low appraisal is going to create significant problems with the buyer. They either want to get out of the deal or demand a reduction.

The ultimate goal here is to help the market recover on its own. If a low appraisal is not resolved everyone loses – the buyer, the seller, the agents and most importantly the market – because either the deal dies or the seller reluctantly reduces the sales price and that neighborhood just took two steps backwards!

In summary, hire a real estate professional that knows the market, and consider a “pre-listing” appraisal to protect your investment.

The truth behind the media reports

Over the next several months, there is going to be some confusion about how well the real estate market is doing. Some headlines are going to announce several consecutive months of increased sales. Other headlines are going to talk about a near total collapse in housing. Both headlines will be based on facts supplied by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). How can that be? How can data report that two opposite things are happening at the same time?

Let us explain. NAR will release two reports each month: the Pending Sales Report and the Existing Sales Report.

The Pending Sales Report (as per NAR)

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The Existing Sales Report (as per NAR)

Existing-home sales are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.

The reason there will be confusion created by the media reports is actually simple to explain. There will be two different numbers reported by both reports each month.

  • § The month-over-month (M-O-M) comparison and
  • § The year-over-year (Y-O-Y) comparison

Normally, we would want to look at the Y-O-Y numbers in each report. However, these numbers are skewed because of the Home Buyer Tax Credit which was available to purchasers for the first four months of last year. Comparing contracts and sales with this time last year would be like comparing apples and oranges.

We strongly suggest that you look at the momentum shown in the month-over-month numbers. They accurately depict a surge in sales that we believe will continue throughout 2011. However, that does not mean price appreciation. Just as demand is increasing so is the supply of inventory. Price is determined by both supply and demand. We do not see any price appreciation until later in the year or early next year.

Bottom Line

The market is coming back. Homes are selling. We have turned the corner and 2011 will be the year the market will normalize.

Source:   KCM Blog